As I try to make sense out of admissions results this year, I may sound a bit like a broken record. Applications continued to hit record highs while admission rates fell to new lows. More waitlist activity, more surprises (both good and disappointing), but for the most part, uncertainty abounds making it virtually impossible to predict who will get in.
Here are some trends I’m seeing and predictions:
Impacted majors, or those with demand that far exceeds spaces, have become increasingly competitive. This is especially true for colleges that have direct admit programs. In recent years the popular and often limited enrollment majors have typically included business, engineering, and other STEM fields. The impact on computer science applicants was especially disheartening this year. Purdue University, well-regarded for its STEM majors, surprised many hopeful comp sci students by admitting them, but not to the main campus. Instead, they received the disappointing news that they would have a place at one of the university’s satellite locations. With a continuing shortage of computer science faculty and more students choosing this field, expect this major to be the most selective at many universities over the near term.
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Test optional truly means test option, and not just for students from under-represented communities. Prestigious colleges and universities, among them the University of Southern California, Duke, NYU, and Emory, have stood by their word that the absence of scores will not negatively impact applicants as long as students shine academically and have other qualities and experiences that make them compelling candidates. On the flip side, test optional has been a strong driver in the explosive growth in applications, leading to the increase in selectivity.
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For the time being, test optional policies are likely to continue. Now in year three of COVID, many colleges have chosen to extend these policies at least through the 2023-2024 cycle. This gives them time to gather, analyze and compare the academic performance data of test submitters and non-submitters to assess the value of scores in their admission process. I expect some will go back to requiring standardized tests, as MIT and Purdue have, but others have already discovered that jettisoning the testing requirement has given them the freedom to assemble a desired community of students without compromising their academic standards. Stay tuned for what colleges choose to do for the high school graduating class of 2025.
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Colleges are anticipating the demise of affirmative action, as they await the outcome of the case before the Supreme Court. The potential loss of affirmative action, or the right to use preferential admissions for disadvantages groups and many low-income families, is among the most pressing issues and concerns in higher ed today. If affirmative action is overruled, the impact may extend beyond under-represented populations. Other factors that risk greater scrutiny and possible elimination include legacy admissions and any practice that favors one group over another. The outcome of this case will undoubtedly have a material impact on how colleges select their classes.
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In recent years, colleges have used early decision as a way to boost their yield, filling more than 50% of the incoming class with these applicants. At least one college, Duke University, took a different approach this year. While early applications still fill a sizeable percentage of the class, the university reduced its ED admitted students from 855 to 800, choosing to set aside more seats for the regular decision round. Duke’s move is in recognition of the reality that not everyone can choose early decision and forgo the opportunity to compare financial aid offers. Will this be an isolated case? I wouldn’t be surprised to see other universities with strong endowments and financial aid budgets adopt a similar stance in coming years.
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The college essay, once the place in a college application to hear a student’s voice, may no longer reflect the applicant’s words. ChatGPT and other AI technologies are creeping into the world of college admission. How are colleges responding to this inevitability? Rick Clark, the assistant vice provost of undergraduate admissions at GeorgiaTech, has offered up the possibility that colleges will rethink the role of the essay altogether and seek alternative ways for capturing a student’s voice in an application. Students should be aware that colleges are also exploring technology to detect AI generated essays, not unlike routine checks to uncover plagiarism. At risk is the potential to have an application denied or an acceptance rescinded.
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In Conclusion ...
The landscape of college admissions is never stagnant. None of us has a crystal ball. However, a little knowledge about trends and developments can help students and families understand some of the factors that most impact college admissions today. Having an understanding for what drives college decisions is knowledge that will hopefully guide families to making good choices. All students would be wise to expand their horizons beyond their drool schools, especially those targeting the most selective colleges.
